New Market Research Report: Ukraine Autos Report Q3 2014

In Ukraine, vehicle production increased 65% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first five months of 2014, to 13,697 units. We attribute this recent surge to extremely low base effects and resurging exports. BMI does not expect this to continue over the course of 2014, however, as trade with Russia, Ukraine's largest export destination, is likely to be curtailed in the coming months on the back of ongoing political tensions. BMI is increasingly bearish on the country's macro picture and we expect this to deteriorate further. Moreover, BMI maintains a bearish view on the country's manufacturing activity and business environment more generally, and believe this will weigh on output growth.

Currently, BMI forecasts vehicle output growth of 7.2% in 2014 on the back of low base effects from a weak 2013 and pent-up demand from sustained declines in recent years. The majority of production is for export, and the demands of the domestic market are met chiefly by imports.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/841309_ukraine_autos_report_q3_2014.aspx?afid=301

The majority of autos manufacturers operating in Ukraine are Russian brands, and this is the main export destination. The ongoing political and economic malaise in the country presents severe downside risks to our production forecasts, as trade relations between Ukraine and Russia could deteriorate. This may prompt Russian manufacturers to suspend or reduce operations in Ukraine; indeed, a number of companies appear to have already furloughed production, and the gains in early 2014 output were down to just a few manufacturers.

Sales

BMI forecasts a 50% decline in vehicle sales in Ukraine in 2014. This comes from a 50% drop in passenger cars and 50% drop in the commercial vehicle segment. Downside risks to this outlook remain firmly to the downside, as a further deterioration in the political and economic outlook could severely impact vehicle sales.

The Ukraine Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Ukraine Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Ukraine.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Ukrainian automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

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