Argentina Business Forecast Report Q3 2014 - New Market Study Published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Jul 02 2014

The Argentine economy is reeling following the January 2014 currency devaluation. Economic growth has slowed markedly, prompting us to revise down our real GDP forecasts, as soaring inflation discourages investment and erodes purchasing power. And despite the negative impact that the devaluation has had on the domestic economy, it has yet to pay dividends for the external account; the goods trade surplus continues to shrink relative to GDP, and we have recently revised our forecasts to account for a wider current account deficit in 2014 than was the case in 2013. Furthermore, the slowdown in economic activity has prompted a widening of the fiscal deficit, in line with our expectations, as government spending accelerates, and weak growth weighs on revenues. After several weeks of stability at the ARS8.000/USD mark, monetary authorities have once again opted for a gradual depreciatory policy, returning to the crawling peg against the US dollar, broadly in line with our forecast for this year.

Full Report Details at

Politically, we are starting to see signs of strain. The perception of heightened street crime prompted incidents of vigilante justice in March and April, undermining the narrative that President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has presented, in which she, and her husband Nestor Kirchner before her, presided over a decade of economic expansion and social inclusion. While we expect that political pressures will not boil over into larger protests, with moderate policies and candidates gaining ascendance up to October 2015 general election, we highlight the potential for greater social unrest as the economy slows this year and crime remains high.

Key Forecast Changes

* Real GDP growth will slow to 0.4% in 2014, a downward revision from our earlier forecast of 1.2%, as the impacts of the January currency devaluation weigh on private consumption and fixed investment to a greater extent than we had originally factored in. This forecast implies a substantial slowdown from 3.0% real...

The Argentina Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Argentina and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Argentina's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Argentina's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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