New Market Research Report: Vietnam Oil & Gas Report Q3 2014

We continue to hold a bullish view on Vietnam's short-term oil production growth outlook, with the start-up of new projects and ramp-up of existing production set to buoy output over the next two to three years. However, we forecast a decline in output following 2016, as new discoveries are insufficient to offset declining volumes from the flagship Bach Ho field. Progress remains stalled on the Block B project, weakening the country's mid-term gas production outlook, although new developments could boost output towards the end of our forecast period. However, several recent developments caution a more bearish outlook on the sector over the long-term. In particular, the escalation of tensions with China this quarter has highlighted the severe political constraints on offshore exploration, where much of the country's most prospective resource potential is thought to lie.

Full Report Details at
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The main trends and developments for Vietnam's oil and gas sector are:

* Total crude oil and liquids output will rise in the short term as new fields are brought online or are ramped up to peak production levels. This could push production up from an estimate of 377,450 barrels per day (b/d) in 2013 to 426,170b/d by 2016. However, this spell will end in 2017 unless further fields are developed. BMI therefore expects production to decline from its 2016 peak to 373,560b/d by 2023.
* Economic growth - expected to average at 6.7% over our 10-year forecast period to 2023 - will continue to drive oil and gas consumption in Vietnam higher over the next decade. However, BMI's Country Risk team holds the view that Vietnam's costly welfare subsidies will need to be gradually withdrawn as part of the government's broader efforts to fix its fiscal imbalances and as such, we expect further price hikes to come. This has led us to moderate our forecasts for Vietnam's oil consumption growth rate. We expect total refined oil products consumption (previously referred to as total oil consumption) to...

The Vietnam Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Vietnam including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Vietnam Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnamese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Vietnam to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese oil and gas market.

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