New Market Study Published: Tanzania Business Forecast Report Q3 2014

Core Views

* We forecast real GDP growth of 6.9% in 2014. This is a slight downwards revision, as goods exports decline and government implementation of development projects falls behind schedule. Growth will nevertheless remain robust from 2015 to 2018 as the consumer base grows and investment flows into the nascent offshore gas sector.
* Tanzania's current account deficit will widen over the coming years, which will make the country increasingly dependent on financial and capital inflows to maintain its positive balance of payments. As a result, the government must be careful not to alienate potential investors through increasingly overt resource nationalism regarding its nascent offshore gas sector.
* Although we forecast that Tanzania's budget deficit will decline to 3.6% of GDP this fiscal year, from 4.7% last year, we caution that this obscures a number of risks. The country is heavily reliant on grants to meet its obligations, falling gold prices are constraining tax revenues, and interest costs on debt are rising.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/841236_tanzania_business_forecast_report_q3_2014.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes

* Real GDP growth in 2014 has been revised down from 7.1% to 6.9%.

Key Risks To Outlook

* The major risk to our economic outlook comes from the weather. Poor rains would not only exacerbate tight food supplies (food price inflation was the major driver of rapidly rising headline inflation in 2011) but would also once again hamper hydroelectricity production, raising costs for businesses and, by extension, consumers.
* The country's infrastructure deficit is another concern; a failure to make significant progress would likely hold the economy back from reaching its significant potential.
* A meaningful deterioration in Tanzania's investment profile as a result of protests against major investment projects or as a result of a more populist approach to policymaking could deter much-needed foreign investment. Growth would not only be disrupted by the cancellation of projects but also by a deterioration in macro stability...

The Tanzania Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Tanzania and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Tanzania's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of The Tanzania's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

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