Ukraine Food & Drink Report Q3 2014 - New Market Report

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Jul 16 2014


The outlook for Ukraine's economy has deteriorated rapidly since the publication of our Q2 Food & Drink report. Our Country Risk team believes that Ukraine will experience a deep recession in 2014, and forecasts near-stagnant economic growth through to 2018. Recession in 2014 will be driven by the devaluation of the hryvnia and major trade disruption due to the elevated risk of a military escalation with Russia. Soaring inflation, substantially tighter government spending, diminished purchasing power and extremely tight credit conditions will also contribute to the dismal economic outlook.

The slowdown has already begun, with recently released data indicating that the economy contracted by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2014. Soaring inflation, substantially tighter government spending, diminished purchasing power and extremely tight credit conditions all point towards a sharp recession in 2014, and we expect real GDP to contract by 4.1% this year. While the IMF loan may help to instil some confidence in Ukraine's debt servicing abilities over the coming quarters, the associated austerity measures and economic reforms will push the economy into contraction.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/850927_ukraine_food_drink_report_q3_2014.aspx?afid=301

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

* 2014 total food consumption sales (local currency) growth: +6.3%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018: +7.9%.
* 2014 per capita food consumption sales (local currency) growth: +7.0%; CAGR to 2018: +8.6%.
* 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +6.9%; CAGR to 2018: +8.9%.
* 2014 soft drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +7.2%; CAGR to 2018: +8.8%.
* 2014 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales (local currency) growth: +8.4%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013 to 2018: +10.1%.

Key Company Trends

Roshen Forced To Suspend Russian Operations : Confectionary firm Roshen, whose owner is Ukraine's President-Elect Petro Poroshenko, has lost its appeal against the Russian court's decision to seize assets of USD80mn. Roshen has...

The Ukraine Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Ukraine Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Ukraine.

Key Benefits

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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