Cyprus Business Forecast Report Q4 2014: New research report available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Jul 28 2014

Core Views

* Cyprus' major economic headwinds and ongoing territorial dispute with Turkey will remain dominant themes in policy-making over the coming years. Austerity measures and several years of economic stagnation could increase social tensions and give rise to marginalised political undercurrents, while efforts to develop offshore mineral resources are set to raise tensions with Turkey within a delicate geopolitical context.
* Cyprus appears to be past the worst of its brutal recession. Nonetheless, we do not forecast annual economic expansion until 2016, as credit growth remains impaired, public austerity deepens, and the internal devaluation process keeps a lid on nominal and real wages.
* Although the Cypriot government's fiscal consolidation plan has begun to bear fruit , with a reduced deficit, a budget surplus is unlikely to be posted anytime soon. With slow economic growth ahead and chronic budget deficits, it is likely that Cyprus's debt sustainability will be called into question again at some point in the next few years.

Full Report Details at

Major Forecast Changes

* We have revised our 2014 real GDP growth forecast to -3.4% from -4.2%.
* We changed our nominal budget deficit forecast for 2014 to 4.7% of GDP from 5.0%.

Key Risks To Outlook

* Given the sharp decline in major categories of expenditure, particularly fixed investment, there is the potential for a stronger rebound than we are currently pencilling in over the next two years. We reiterate, however, that the economy and the components of expenditure are likely to remain well below their peaks in real terms for several years to come.

The Cyprus Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cyprus and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Cyprus's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Cyprus's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Cyprus's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cyprus, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cyprus Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections:

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