Estonia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014 - New Market Report

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Jul 28 2014

Core Views

* We believe Estonia is on a sustainable growth trajectory following the deep recession brought on by the eurozone debt crisis, with economic growth to average 3.0% from 2015-2017 before gradually settling towards long-term trend growth of 2.7%. Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth over the medium term, as sluggish regional economic activity hinders faster export growth
* Estonia's external accounts pose few risks to macroeconomic stability. Low current account deficits in the coming years will be comfortably financed, and will not be associated with an unsustainable build up of short-term foreign liabilities, as in the pre-financial crisis era.
* We maintain a positive view towards Estonia's fiscal trajectory, with total public debt to remain the lowest in Europe by a comfortable margin.

Major Forecast Changes

* We have revised down our 2014 growth forecast, from 2.0% to 0.9%, as a sluggish recovery in external demand is weighing on the short-term growth outlook. However, we continue to expect a more robust recovery in 2015, as economic recoveries in the eurozone and Nordics gain traction and begin to spur higher regional trade volumes.

Full Report Details at

Risks To Outlook

* As a member of the eurozone, Estonia remains exposed to any renewed flare-up of the sovereign debt crisis.
* Although private consumption remains relatively strong on the back of rising real wages and falling unemployment, a failure of external demand to recover would begin to dampen the momentum underpinning domestic demand driven growth in 2015.
* The extreme openness of the Estonian economy, where exports plus imports represented 185.4% of GDP in 2013, means economic growth will remain extremely sensitive to external shocks and dependent on sustained export growth.


The Estonia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Estonia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Estonia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Estonia's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Estonia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.

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