France Business Forecast Report Q4 2014 - New Market Report

Core Views:

* While the rest of the eurozone is showing early signs of recovery, the French economy continues to stagnate. While the improving regional economic outlook may provide some limited upside potential, this might not be sufficient to drive a recovery in French manufacturing unless the country first addresses its outstanding competitiveness issues.
* While we are likely to see a gradual increase in positive rhetoric towards structural reforms, Hollande is unlikely to become an ambitious reformer of the French model. While we expect some reformers will take baby steps in the right direction, the ability of Hollande to implement sweeping reforms will be restrained by divisions within his own party and core support base, and resistance from the proliferation of special interest groups which will make unilateral reform a troublesome and compromised process.
* We expect pressures on the government to engage in more concerted fiscal consolidation to mount over the coming quarters, particularly as lower growth begins to translate into lower government revenues. While France has thus far not fallen prey to the bond vigilantes like the peripheral countries of the eurozone, the country nonetheless has one of the largest public sector debt piles in Europe and remains susceptible to contagion effects.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes:

* We have revised up our 2013 real GDP growth estimate for France to -0.2%, from a previous forecast of 0.0% on the back of stronger than expected household consumption.

Key Risks To Outlook:

* Downside Risks To Fiscal Forecast: The possibility of a further intensification of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the potential need for state-led capital injections in the domestic banking sector keeps the risks to our fiscal deficits over the medium term firmly to the downside.
* Rising Debt Loads Could Way On Growth: We see continued hazards to the fiscal outlook on the horizon, including the potential for interest rate shocks, further...

The France Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in France and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of France's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of France's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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