Core Views
* Economic growth in Canada will gradually accelerate over the next few years, helped by a continued expansion in private consumption and a return to positive growth in fixed investment. Our growth outlook, however, remains below consensus expectations, our reflecting concerns about high household leverage, declining commodity prices, and recent weakness in US economic data .
* Exchange rate depreciation and stronger US demand will see Canada's trade in goods balance move from deficit into surplus by 2016, which will continue to narrow the current account deficit over the coming years. Despite recent depreciation, we believe that the Canadian dollar remains fundamentally overvalued, and continued weakness in 2014 will help to revive manufactured goods exports to a strengthening US economy.
* Monetary policy will remain unchanged in Canada until 2015, when the Bank of Canada will commence a gradual tightening cycle, as exchange rate weakness and rising industrial capacity utilisation see inflation move towards the central bank's 2% target. In the near term, however, an interest rate cut is not out of the question should economic data show renewed weakness.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/853969_canada_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301
Key Forecast Changes
* We have not made any major forecast changes this quarter.
Key Risks To Outlook
* Downside Risks To Growth Forecast: Exogenous factors, such as declining commodity prices and an erratic economic recovery in the US, could have more profound effects on our real GDP growth projections in the near term. However, we feel that our below-consensus forecasts currently reflect our more cautious outlook in this respect.
* Downside Risks To Long-Term Forecast: High household leverage and elevated housing prices pose the biggest downside risk to Canada's economy. Canadian households have not deleveraged over the past five years, in which US household debt-to-GDP fell from a peak of 95.5% in Q109 to 76.7% in Q413. Canadian household debt-to-GDP, meanwhile, continued to climb...
The Canada Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Canada and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Canada's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Canada's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Chile Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Hungary Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Lithuania Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
Market Report, "Canada Business Forecast Report Q4 2014", published
Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001