"Lithuania Business Forecast Report Q4 2014" Published

Core View

* Recent growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine will darken investor sentiment in 2014, weighing on Lithuania's trade flows and domestic demand. We expect goods exports to expand by 6.5% in 2014, down from 7.0% growth in 2013.
* Lithuania's fiscal consolidation prospects remain in place with the budget deficit to narrow to 2.9% of GDP in 2014 and to 2.6% in 2015 from an estimated 3.3% in 2013. Despite the growing external public debts in recent years, the government's debt dynamics remain on a stable footing due to the government's fiscal consolidation efforts and the upcoming euro adoption which will bolster investor confidence and anchor borrowing costs..
* Real GDP growth in Lithuania will arrive at 3.3% in 2014 equal to the outturn for 2013, before slowing to 3.1% in 2015. We expect fixed investment to slow to 5.0% in 2014, and to 4.0% in 2015, down from 12.8% in 2013, as regional geopolitical tensions weigh on investor sentiment.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/853985_lithuania_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes

* We have revised slightly our forecasts for Lithuania's budget deficit for 2014 to 2.9% of GDP from 2.4% previously as the government has pledged to ramp up military spending to 2.0% of GDP from the current 0.9% level. Nevertheless, we maintain that this will not jeopardise Lithuania's prospects of joining the eurozone by 2015.

Risks To Outlook

* Still-depressed business investment into traditional sectors of the economy, such as construction, do not bode well for a continuation of the ongoing trend in GFCF growth. Indeed, recent years have shown that this expenditure component of GDP has been volatile, and we cannot rule out an erratic recovery in fixed investment going forward.
* The recent push into surplus for the current account in 2013 could become a more permanent feature of a still-weak domestic economy and a stabilising external consumption picture. However, Lithuania's improving domestic demand picture means that import growth will move in tandem with...

The Lithuania Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Lithuania and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Lithuania's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Lithuania's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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