Report Published: "India Business Forecast Report Q4 2014"

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Aug 01 2014

Core Views

* The strength of the electoral win by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the lower house (Lok Sabha) elections in India surprised many - the party swept 282 seats of the 543-seat parliament, 10 more seats than it needs for a majority. Prime Minister Narendra Modi led his party to victory with a presidential-style campaign never seen before and overcame questions about his Hindu nationalist background. While we, like many others, hold high expectations for Modi's team to deliver on its promises to clear the road blocks obstructing infrastructure projects, we hold a more downbeat outlook on the prospects for the quick liberalisation of sectors such as mining, oil and gas, and insurance.
* We maintain our above consensus outlook for India's real GDP growth, expecting the return of investor and business confidence to support an economic growth revival in FY2014/15 (April-March). While the pace of recovery will also depend on the timing of monetary easing, we have seen optimistic signs from June manufacturing and services purchasing managers' index readings, indicating that both sectors are in expansion. Our upbeat outlook is reflected in our real GDP growth forecast of 5.6%, which sits above consensus expectations of 5.4%.
* Although headline inflation has eased somewhat in India, they remain at elevated levels, amongst the highest in the region. Acute food price pressures, as supplies often constrained by logistical inefficiencies and prices, further boosted by minimum support levels dictated by the government, lie at the heart of the problem. Expansionary government policy further exacerbates these pressures. Absent a major reduction in subsidies and minimum support prices for agricultural goods, and together with weaker-than-usual monsoon rains, there is a risk that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer in FY2014/15.
* The Indian rupee remains one of our favourite currencies in the region...

Full Report Details at

The India Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in India and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of India's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of India's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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