Market Report, "Poland Mining Report Q4 2014", published

Growth in the Polish mining sector will be modest and predominantly driven by increased coal output. Copper output will struggle as falling copper ore grades and weak prices are set to hinder growth. Nevertheless, the rate of growth we forecast indicates that the country will remain one of the most significant players in the European coal, silver and copper markets.

Downside Risks


The main downside risks to our forecasts are weak copper prices, cheap coal imports and labour unrest in the sector. Due to our view for a sharp slowdown in Chinese economic growth and expectation for increased copper supply, we expect lower copper prices over coming years. We forecast copper prices to average USD6,520/tonne in 2014, significantly lower than their 2011 average of USD8,826/tonne. Combined with falling ore grades in Poland, these lower prices will significantly disincentive investment in the sector. Lower commodity prices will also have the effect of squeezing miners' margins, precipitating cutbacks and thus heightening the risk of industrial unrest. Poland's mining sector is comprised of strong unions and as such we highlight tense wage negotiations and potential strikes to affect the sector over coming years.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/861894_poland_mining_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301

New Entrants


Dutch miner New World Resources (NWR) received approval from its board of directors to extract coal from the Debiensko mine in Poland. A feasibility study indicates that the mine has a reserve of 190mn tonnes of coal, allowing for average annual production of 2mn tonnes. NWR expects the first coal to be extracted from the mine in 2017. Total investment in the project will reach EUR411mn, which is modest compared with typical investments in mines, and appears to be good value in our view, considering that NWR has a 50-year licence to mine the resource. NWR is also looking to mine coal at a number of additional coal seams at the site.

The Poland Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Poland Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Poland.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.

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