Caucasus Business Forecast Report Q4 2014: New research report available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Sep 04 2014

Core Views

* Despite an escalation in violence along the border of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in July/August 2014, it is not part of our core scenario to see the outbreak of a widespread military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While the leadership of each side espoused aggressive nationalist rhetoric in order to ensure domestic support, the key powers in the region (Armenia-supporting Russia and Azerbaijan-supporting Turkey) are unlikely to favour an outbreak of conflict on their southern and eastern flanks respectively.
* The Armenian real GDP growth will slow in 2015 on the back of declining export demand from Russia, as well as stagnating remittance growth, a key driver of private consumption. With Armenia set to join the Eurasian Economic Union on January 1 2015 we believe the economy will remain heavily reliant on Russian support over the coming years.

Major Forecast Changes

* On the back of robust growth in H114 and positive leading indicators we have revised up our real GDP growth forecasts for Georgia in 2014 and 2015, from 3.4% and 4.1% to 4.4% and 4.2% respectively. We expect growth to slow in 2015 from 2014 as growth in exports to Russia slows on the back of Moscow discontinuing a free trade agreement in retribution for Georgia deepening its ties with the EU.

Full Report Details at

Key Risks To Outlook

* Given the relatively weak links between the two countries' economies we do not believe Georgia's shift towards the EU will be hindered by punitive Russian sanctions. However, a continuation of the poor relations between Moscow and the West could lead to the Russian government becoming more aggressive in its dealings with states it views as within its sphere of influence. A Russian military incursion beyond the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia could result not only in a widespread military conflict in Georgia, but also likely some form of retaliatory action by the West.

The Caucasus Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of the Caucasus' economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of the Caucasus' economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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