New Report Available: Germany Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

Core Views

* We have now moved even further below consensus on German growth for 2014, and remain some way below consensus on growth in 2015, as weakening confidence will cap both investment and consumption growth over the coming quarters.
* We estimate the Germany's current account surplus to have peaked in 2013, due to weakening demand in key export markets and eroding export competitiveness. However, narrowing of the surplus over the next five years will be limited by tight fiscal policy, which will in turn hamper the regional economic recovery.
* German energy policy will continue to drive significant structural economic imbalances. While attempts to shield industry from the cost of transition towards renewable energy resources will curtail consumption, German industrial competitiveness will eventually suffer from higher energy costs.
* We expect German foreign policy to become increasingly isolationist over the next few years, driven by the declining global influence of the US, changing attitudes of a younger generation and fatigue with the lack of reform among eurozone states.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/871622_germany_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes

* We have revised down our 2014 real GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.9, as the Ukraine crisis and fallout with Russia further dampens confidence. This takes us even further below consensus forecasts, which currently stand at 2.0% according to Bloomberg.

Key Risks To Outlook

* Our core scenario envisages that the incipient recovery in economic activity is sustained over the next few quarters, as improved manufacturing output feeds through into stronger domestic demand. However, a more rapid slowdown in export growth on the back of slumping emerging market demand could choke off this recovery, which would mean our growth forecast for 2014 is too optimistic.
* External (particularly Chinese) demand and euro trajectory also pose threats to Germany's external account and net export outlook. Our view is for a moderation in demand from China and a slight...

The Germany Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Germany and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Germany's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Germany's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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