New market study, "Poland Shipping Report Q4 2014", has been published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Sep 18 2014

BMI remains fundamentally positive about the Polish economy, although a little below consensus in our growth forecasts. Underpinning this is our view that domestic consumption will remain strong, stimulated by low inflation, rising employment and low interest rates.

Household consumption represents a larger share of the Polish economy - around 60% - than in some of its Central European neighbours (around 50% for Slovakia and the Czech Republic). This gives Poland extra resilience to any headwinds coming from the external environment. That said, we are also positive about the contribution net exports will make to the country's ongoing recovery. This, however, is where we are a little more cautious than the consensus. We see risks that declining Asia demand will feed through into weaker German factory output, in turn dampening demand from Polish supply chains.

For 2014, we are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.8% versus consensus forecasts of 3.2%. Nonetheless, the acceleration in economic activity remains reasonably robust, and domestic and external conditions will remain accommodating. We expect growth to gather pace to 3.1% next year. Poland should achieve average annual growth of 3.3% over the next five years.

Full Report Details at

We continue to project positive growth for the country's major maritime ports in 2014. After a slow start to the year, the Port of Gdansk, which is seeing ongoing capacity expansion and consolidating its gateway role, is performing dynamically. Gdynia is also expected to see steady growth.

Headline Industry Data

* 2014 port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast to grow 8.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 32.68mn tonnes. Over the medium term to 2018, we project a 7.7% average annual increase.
* 2014 port of Gdansk container throughput forecast to grow 12.0% to 1.318mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium term, we project a 10.7% average annual increase.
* Port of Gdynia tonnage to increase 9.6% to19.353mn tonnes, with five-year average annual growth...

The Poland Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Poland.

BMI's Poland Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Poland.

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