Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q4 2014 - New Market Report

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Sep 19 2014

Core Views

* The domestic political environment remains heavily divided along ethnic lines, stunting structural reform and weighing on the country's EU membership ambitions. With few signs that radical change can be implemented, we expect the country to muddle through in the coming years, with frustrating delays to badly-needed reforms.
* The economic recovery that began with earnest in 2013 faces an important, albeit temporary, setback after historic flooding in May caused massive damage to property and infrastructure. Notwithstanding uncertainty over the rate at which reconstruction programmes can be completed, will expect the economic climate to improve again from 2015.
* Budget policy will continue to be guided by the government's Stand-By Agreement with the IMF - which we expect to be extended beyond June 2015 - though budget execution will still be affected by political disputes.

Full Report Details at

Major Forecast Changes

* We have adjusted our target for GDP growth in 2014 to 0.2%, from a previous 2.0%, as massive flooding in May hits the industrial and agricultural sectors hard, damaging export sales and causing a temporary reduction in domestic demand.
* We have lowered our target for annual average inflation in 2014 to 0.3%, from a previous 1.1%, as the deflationary trend persisted throughout H114.
* After coming in at an estimated 5.5% of GDP in 2013, we have increased our target for the current account deficit to 7.3% of GDP in 2014 (from a previous 5.8%) on account of reduced export growth in the aftermath of flooing. We have also raised out 2015 forecast to 7.3% of GDP.

Risks To Outlook

* Uncertainty over the full impact of the floods presents a key risks to our short-term economic outlook.
* The 2014 general election is also major source of uncertainty and risk, given the experience of 2010, when it took almost two years for coalition agreements to be settled at all levels of governments. A stalemate after the vote would further damage the country's investment...

The Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Bosnia-Herzegovina and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Bosnia-Herzegovina's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Bosnia-Herzegovina's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Russia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Latvia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Australia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email:
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001

Visit website »