China Freight Transport Report Q4 2014: New research report available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Oct 13 2014

BMI maintains its cautious outlook for China's freight transport volumes for Q4 2014. We continue to believe that the hangover effects of China's economic stimulus are yet to be felt, and cooling credit growth is likely to reveal these effects over the coming quarters. Newfound reform momentum has the potential to help the economy grow out from under its credit excesses, however, several obstacles stand in the way of this, including the likelihood that reform efforts could exacerbate any economic downturn. We maintain our below-consensus forecast for China's real GDP growth of 7.1% in 2014 and 6.0% in 2015.

The outlook for China's traditional economic growth drivers, such as heavy industry and real estate construction, remains cloudy, and this will put downside pressure on freight volumes. The outlook facing the more consumer-focussed industries is relatively strong over the medium term and this should boost air freight volumes in particular, as demand for small electronic goods continues. Overall, though, as the traditional sectors remain the dominant drivers of the economy, we remain below consensus in our real GDP growth outlook.

Full Report Details at

Headline Industry Data

* 2014 air freight tonnes/km is expected to grow by 3.5%.
* 2014 rail freight tonnes/km is forecast to grow by 1.2%.
* 2014 port of Shanghai throughput is forecast to grow by 2.5%.
* 2014 road freight tonnes/km is forecast to grow by 10.8%.

Key Industry Trends

iPhone 6 To Boost Air Freight Volumes: A September 2014 launch date for the new iPhone 6 appears likely, with two versions of the model planned. The launch of the new Apple product offers upside risk to air freight volumes - good news for an industry that is in recovery. In January-May 2014 global air freight volumes have grown by 4.24% year-on-year (y-o-y) - a robust strengthening in growth, compared to the first five months of 2013, when global air freight levels were down 0.5% y-o-y.

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The China Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s China Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.

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