Brazil Freight Transport Report Q4 2014 - New Market Research Report

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Oct 24 2014

We anticipate that growth in Brazil's freight transport volumes will outperform the Latin American giant's real GDP growth in 2014 and over our medium-term forecast period (2014-2018), across all modes. Continued growth in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nation's mining and agribusiness sectors will ensure that the road, rail and ports sectors will continue to experience healthy expansion, while air freight will benefit from the growing demands of the country's expanding middle class. Further, the sector will benefit from Brazil's role as a major exporter of a host of commodities.

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Nevertheless, there remain serious challenges to growth, and hence risks to our outlook. These stem from both the physical side - whether infrastructure development in the country will be sufficient to support our projected growth rates; and the human - the ports sector is already undergoing a wave of industrial unrest as workers contest the government's proposed ports privatisation moves.

We believe that Brazil's wider economic recovery will falter this year and thus are revising down our GDP growth forecasts. We have downgraded our 2014 and 2015 headline real GDP growth forecasts to 1.8% and 2.2% respectively, from 2.0% and 2.4%. This implies that growth will remain broadly in line with the headline print for Q114, which came in at 1.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), in the next few quarters. Weakening investment and private consumption growth in Brazil's Q114 GDP release highlight the continued challenges facing the economy, and inform our view that slow growth is here to stay for several years.

Key Industry Data

* Air freight tonnes to grow 5.4% in 2014 to reach 1.81mn tonnes. Over the medium term, to 2018, we predict that growth will average 6.5% a year.
* Total tonnage throughput at the port of Santos to grow 9.0% in 2014 to reach 124.3mn tonnes. To 2018, we predict average annual growth of 6.2%.
* Rail freight tonnes to grow by 1.8% in 2014 to reach 477mn tonnes. To 2018, we...

The Brazil Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Brazil Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.

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