"New Zealand Business Forecast Report Q4 2014" now available at Fast Market Research

Core Views

* New Zealand's economic performance remains on a stable trend, with indicators showing that the manufacturing and services sectors remain firmly in expansion. We maintain that the pace of expansion will remain broadly the same as 2013, with just a slight acceleration to 2.7% in 2014 from 2.5% previously. Interest rate hikes, together with export performance moderating in Q314, should cap upside potential of the economic growth.
* While we had originally held the view that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold its official policy rate at 2.75%, intensifying price pressures and strong economic indicators have led us to revise up our rate forecast to expect another 25 basis points. This would bring our forecast for the official cash rate to hit 3.00% by end-2014. Accordingly, we maintain that the next rate hike will be largely pre-emptive in nature, in response to cool domestic price pressures that have been on the rise. On the other hand, the subdued, though growing, credit expansion from business suggests to us that the central bank will be wary about impeding business expansion, and possibly re-focus on cooling the housing market through its macro-prudential rules. Indeed, we believe that the macro-prudential rules have shown signs of have their intended effect on housing market.
* Volatile weather and a trend of increasing compliance/regulations will continue to pose risks to New Zealand exports, given the changing composition of its trade with the external world. While dairy exports have surged of late, we believe this is unsustainable, driven mainly by Chinese importers fearing a possible lack of supply as new regulations are set to be implemented in March. Taking a longer term view of things, we believe that the trade balance will record a surplus and continue to head in the right direction as the interest rate hike by the RBNZ to help rein in import consumption, and reduce external liabilities in the banking sector as housing-related...

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/887968_new_zealand_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=301

The New Zealand Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in New Zealand and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of New Zealand's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of New Zealand's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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