Indonesia Business Forecast Report Q1 2015 - New Study Released

Core Views

* Despite the fact that Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo emerged victorious in July's presidential elections, significant political uncertainty remains. In particular, Prabowo Subianto's Red and White coalition has shown signs that it will be a particularly obstructionist opposition in parliament, creating additional risk to the implementation of Jokowi's policy agenda. While we remain generally positive on the incoming administration, this is a key risk to our view. .
* While his policy platform has not yet been fully elaborated , Jokowi's ability to streamline bureaucratic inefficiencies, improve public finances, strike a balance between pro-business and pro-welfare policies, as well as willingness to take politically unpopular but necessary measures to right economic imbalances could provide some upside potential for the infrastructure, mining and oil and gas sectors.
* Economic growth will likely accelerate in 2015 as policy-making stabilises along with improving investor sentiment. Indonesia's macroeconomic outlook has stabilised considerably since 2013, including an improvement in the trade account as well as significantly lower inflation. This should allow Bank Indonesia (BI) room to ease policy in H115.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/900620_indonesia_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes

* We have downgraded our end-2014 forecast on the Indonesian rupiah to IDR12,200 /USD from IDR11, 500 /USD previously owing to broad US dollar strength. That said, we remain positive on the currency's fundamental outlook, and expect it to recover somewhat in 2015 to average IDR11,850 next year.

Key Risks To Outlook

* Indonesia risks a return to the more polarised political environment witnessed before outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono took office in the mid-2000s.
* Indonesia's poor net international investment position, along with a current account deficit, make it vulnerable to periods of acute risk aversion in the global economy. In an environment of rising global interest rates, this is an increasing...

The Indonesia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Indonesia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Indonesia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Indonesia's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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