Now Available: Nigeria Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Nov 14 2014

Core Views

* Although we continue to forecast robust economic growth in 2015 and the years thereafter, the risks to the Nigerian economy have increased over recent quarters thanks to shifting dynamics in global oil markets.
* Nigeria's balance of payments position will come under renewed pressure as February 2015 elections approach. A balance of payments crisis is unlikely however owing to a healthy level of foreign exchange reserves. Over the longer term, Nigeria's external accounts will become increasingly susceptible to negative shocks owing to a subdued outlook for oil export growth.
* September's hawkish monetary policy statement will calm lingering fears that new central bank governor Godwin Emefiele will prematurely loosen policy. This is important for macro stability given that food prices, rising banking sector liquidity and higher government spending ahead of the February 2015 election will increase inflationary pressures and exert depreciatory forces on the currency.
* The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has recovered from some of the damage inflicted by defections in late 2013 and 2014 and is reasserting itself as Nigeria's dominant political force. The February 2015 election will be the most closely fought in the country's democratic history, but the power of incumbency, wrangling in the opposition and the fact that it remains the only truly national party means that the PDP is likely to win.

Full Report Details at

Major Forecast Changes

* No major forecast changes.

Key Risks To Outlook

* The volatility of oil prices poses a significant risk to export revenues and government receipts, which, if disrupted, could harm macroeconomic stability.
* While we believe that security risks will eventually be contained, if the situation significantly deteriorates, this would potentially affect investment, exports, and growth.
* The approach of the 2015 elections will see political risk remain elevated and could result in lower growth than we currently predict if there is a major...

The Nigeria Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Nigeria and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Nigeria's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Nigeria's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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