New Report Available: Kuwait Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Core Views

* We expect the Kuwaiti economy to perform relatively well over 2015 and 2016, and retain our forecast for real GDP growth of 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively, from an estimated 2.9% in 2014. After a long period of stagnation, the Kuwaiti investment outlook appears to be improving, while the prospects for consumption remain bright. However, we again highlight Kuwait's ever-volatile political situation as the key downside risk to economic activity.
* Kuwait has seen a flurry of populist legislation recently, including several measures specifically targeting expatriate workers. This runs the risk of increasing uncertainty within the private sector, as well as cementing perceptions of the country as a hub of policy instability.
* We expect tensions to remain between the government and the legislative branch, even with the election of a renewed 'loyalist' parliament.
* We forecast average consumer price inflation for Kuwait of 3.8% and 4.0% for 2015 and 2016 respectively, up from 3.0% in 2014. While we expect a slight fall in Kuwaiti food inflation over the near term on the back of lower global prices, a tight supply picture in the real estate market will fuel housing inflation over the coming quarters, in a trend seen across the GCC.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/900626_kuwait_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=301

Key Risks To Outlook

* As ever, given the economy's heavy dependence on oil, any sustained downturn in global energy prices would prove disastrous. That said, Kuwait has the financial wherewithal to cope with any short-term volatility in oil prices, and therefore the underlying risks in this regard are minimal.
* Our forecasts assume that the implementation of the government's development plans will be slow owing to the impact of bureaucratic gridlock. However, the state certainly has the firepower to move forward with its capital spending plans if political compromises can be reached. Furthermore, a renewed loyalist parliament, following legislative elections in July 2013, offers the prospect of an acceleration of...

The Kuwait Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Kuwait and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Kuwait's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Kuwait's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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