Now Available: Brazil Autos Report Q1 2015

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Nov 26 2014

BMI forecasts a 0.5% drop in vehicle sales in 2015, as we expect the passenger car segment to drag down total sales despite a very slowly recovering commercial vehicle (CV) segment.

We forecast a 1.9% decline in passenger car sales in 2015 with sales reaching 2.44mn units for the year. This decline will come as growth in new passenger car purchases falls behind growth in consumer spending due to car sales tax hikes weighing on demand.

In 2015, BMI expects to see 3.1% growth in light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales, a slowdown from strong growth in recent years and a 2.0% expansion in heavy truck sales. This slightly improving outlook for CVs is due to improving growth in fixed investment over the year.

BMI is becoming less bearish on the country's domestic sales and export outlook and believes this will feed into a turnaround in output in 2015. Indeed, we forecast a 0.3% increase in total vehicle output over the coming year, an improvement on the large falls in output seen in 2014.

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The majority of production in Brazil is for the domestic market. Over the long run, we expect exports to play an increasingly important role in output growth but volumes are likely to remain relatively minimal over 2015 and they will not be the primary driver of production.

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