Now Available: Poland Shipping Report Q1 2015

Although we were surprised by the National Bank of Romania (NBR)'s policy rate cut to 3.25% on August 4 (we expected rates to be held at 3.50%), this does not materially change our bullish Romanian leu versus bearish Hungarian forint view. Low inflation (just 0.7% y-o-y in June) is likely to have prompted the cut, even though domestic demand remains strong. Indeed, inflation is above the NBR's 2.5% ±1.0% target when food prices are excluded from inflation calculations and retail sales expanded by a robust 10.3% y-o-y in June.

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We withhold from adjusting our interest rate forecasts until a detailed monetary policy statement is released by the bank, but do not expect further cuts or significant leu weakness over the coming months. Indeed, the currency remained unmoved on the back of the cut, and we are up 1.0% in our bullish RON vs bearish HUF view in our asset class strategy tables ( see chart below).

We still believe the RON will strengthen against the HUF over the coming months, due to Romania's more attractive growth outlook and the Hungarian central bank's implicit strategy of weakening the forint ( see 'HUF Won't Benefit From End Of Easing Cycle', July 28). Moreover, we believe the Hungarian government's plan to force the conversion of FX loans into forints at some point in early 2015 will also weigh on the HUF's attractiveness, given uncertainty over how this will be implemented. The plan looks likely to hit banking sector profits and will use up a significant chunk of the central bank's FX reserves.

The Poland Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Poland.

BMI's Poland Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Poland.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish shipping market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
* Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

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