Just Published: "Pakistan Autos Report Q1 2015"

We believe that policies drawn up in the new federal budget will support the domestic auto industry, by creating conditions for stronger sales. The new budget, coupled with our upbeat forecast for private consumption and gross fixed-capital formation in the country, bodes well for both passenger cars and commercial vehicles (CVs). While we have maintained our forecast for passenger vehicles, we have revised our CV sales growth forecast to 9.4% in FY2014/15 (July-June) from 4.5% previously, bringing our overall auto sales growth forecast to 4.8%, up from 4.0% previously.

According to the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), domestic auto sales (includes passenger cars, trucks, buses, light commercial vehicles, vans, and jeeps) for September rose 11.3% year-on-year (y-o-y). In line with what we have highlighted previously, the removal of the 10.0% Federal Excise Duties (FED) on domestically produced motor vehicles above 1,800cc has benefitted the passenger car segment. Our positive outlook for the country's economy will continue to support passenger car sales.

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For the CV segment, we foresee that a cut in general sales tax (GST) and an allocation of PKR25bn for the government's taxi scheme will boost CV sales. As seen in the passenger car segment, CV sales have also rebounded in August 2014, rising by 18.4% year-on-year following a decline of 14.1% in July, and we expect this momentum to continue given Pakistan's positive investment outlook.

On the production front, consumers will continue to prefer purchasing domestically produced vehicles, rather than imported ones. This is largely due to the government's change in Federal Excise Duty (FED) on locally assembled vehicles above 1,800cc, creating a bias for cheaper, domestically assembled vehicles. Consequently, we have revised our 2014 production growth forecast to 5.1% from 2.5% previously.

The Pakistan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Pakistan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Pakistan.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Pakistani automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

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