Just Published: "Nigeria Power Report Q1 2015"

Strong macroeconomic fundamentals, progress in gas- fired and renewable power generation and the mobilisation of domestic and international financing continue to support our long-term optimistic outlook for Nigeria's power sector. We emphasise, however, that natural gas shortages, inefficient infrastructure and a challenging business environment remain sizeable risks to investment in the market - with the lack of feedstock for the country's expanding thermal power capacity representing the greatest constraint to Nigeria's considerable potential.

We have maintained our core view that the Nigerian power market can offer huge long-term opportunities for investors willing to take current operational risks. This is predicated on colossal untapped - and growing - demand for power, driven by an expanding population, a booming economy and a still limited national electrification rate (currently at about 50% of the population). We forecast real GDP to expand by an annual average rate of 6.8% between 2014 and 2023, while power consumption will grow by an average rate of 9.6% over the same period.

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Our constructive long-term outlook for Nigeria's power sector - with total power generation forecast to grow by an annual average rate of 8.75% over the coming decade - has been reinforced by government initiatives to increase the price of natural gas for power generators and to provide liquidity to upgrade and expand the country's power infrastructure. Moreover, we expect the investment trend in new natural-gas fired independent power plants to continue in the coming quarters. Furthermore, in light of growing international interest, we have upwardly revised our forecast for solar installed capacity from 2016.

Despite these positive developments, we highlight that improvements will take time to materialise and that Nigeria's business environment continues to represent a challenge to investment. We reiterate that gas...

The Nigeria Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Nigeria Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.

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