New Market Research Report: New Zealand Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Core Views

* The free trade agreement (FTA) between New Zealand and South Korea is set to be ratified by Q115, subject to parliamentary approval, and will provide significant benefits to New Zealand's meat and dairy exports. Additionally, recued import tariffs on consumer gods should support real incomes, helping to offset the impact of weakening terms of trade and a depreciating currency.
* We are beginning to see signs of a slight slowdown in the New Zealand economy. The crucial agricultural sector is cooling, while the services and construction sectors are currently the only drivers of growth, leaving the economy susceptible to weakness in the New Zealand dollar and the property market.
* Our contrarian view of a no further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) until 2016 is gaining credence as consensus expectations continue to gradually decline while interest rate markets price out aggressive hikes. As real GDP growth weakens, and macro-prudential housing measures remain in place, inflationary pressures will remain benign.
* The New Zealand government is set to run a small fiscal deficit in Fiscal Year 2014/15, but the overall trends of narrower deficits and falling spending relative to GDP remain in place. We are forecasting a deficit equivalent to 0.2% of GDP in FY2014/15, before flipping to a surplus of 0.3% of GDP in FY2015/16.
* We forecast the NZD to average USD0.7400/NZD in 2015 and USD0.7000/NZD in 2016. The recent low of USD0.7700/NZD is a key technical support level, and a break below this would suggest a move down to USD0.7000/NZD and possibly below. Fundamentally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues to talk down the currency, and widespread expectations of interest rate hikes are gradually being unwound, which will act as headwinds to the currency going forward.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924076_new_zealand_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes

* We have not made any significant revisions since our previous Business forecast Report. We continue to see real GDP growth...

The New Zealand Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in New Zealand and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of New Zealand's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of New Zealand's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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