Chile Shipping Report Q1 2015 - New Market Report

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Sat Jan 10 2015

Considerable investment in the expansion of Chile's ports confirms our positive outlook for its ports infrastructure and the wider construction industry. In the near- term, we expect the port of San Antonio, now the country's largest port, to continue to outperform the port of Valparaíso. The former is expected to continue its solid pace of growth witnessed recently, registering strong growth in container throughput over our medium-term forecast period. There is downside risk to our forecasts from the 'Short Law' on ports, currently in parliament, which is widely expected to lower Chilean port s' productivity over the medium- term.

A stable political outlook and sound economic fundamentals position Chile for steady, albeit slower, economic progress, underpinning our view that the country will have achieved developed state status by 2023. While obstacles such as high reliance on copper exports and oil imports continue to pose a risk to economic progress, especially in light of what we view as a long-term downturn in Chinese demand for Chilean copper, we remain optimistic about Chile's economic potential over the next 10 years. Diversification away from commodity exports and further development of regional and South-to-South trade will provide an important platform for growth over the next decade.

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The Chilean economy will continue to rebalance through a weaker exchange rate in the coming years, leading to a narrowing of the current account deficit. Although the largest sell-off in the Chilean peso is behind us, we expect the unit to remain under broad downside pressure from US dollar strength and lower average commodity prices in 2015, dampening goods import growth. Moreover, a weaker exchange rate will also bolster the competitiveness of non-mining exports, facilitating the gradual rebalancing of Chile's external accounts towards stronger non-commodity goods exports.

Our Asia Country Risk team believes the likelihood of a rapid and sustained...

The Chile Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Chile.

BMI's Chile Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Chile.

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