United States Agribusiness Report Q1 2015 - New Market Report

Production growth in the corn will be excellent in 2013/14 owing to record yields. However, farm incomes will be significantly lower given decreases in prices. L ivestock will see some mild improvement in production growth in 2014/15, mainly owing to the poultry and pork sectors. The dairy sector is likely to see some improvement, but a record drought in California (the largest producing state) leads to strong downside production risks . Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex , and we see the strongest production growth potential for soybeans among the grains complex . We believe grain s production overall will stagnate due to a lower planted area on the back of lower prices.

Key Trends

* Beef production growth to 2017/18: 4.1% to 11.8mn tonnes. We have again revised our beef production forecasts lower due to herd rebuilding in 2013, which is likely to lead to fewer cows available for slaughter. The length of the cattle cycle means we expect production to stagnate until the end of our forecast period.
* Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 11.4% to 22.4mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largest poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.
* 2015 real GDP growth: 2. 6 % year-on-year, up from 2.1% in 2014; predicted to average 2.4% from 2014 until 2018.

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Industry Developments

The adoption of duties on imported Mexican sugar will raise the price of sugar within the US, which already trades at a premium to global prices as a result of government support schemes to sugar farmers. Indeed, US sugar prices and the spread between US and world prices have increased in recent months as speculation that duties would be adopted has increased. Higher domestic sugar prices have and will...

The United States Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's United States Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.



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