Fast Market Research recommends "United States Freight Transport Report Q1 2015" from Business Monitor International, now available
[ClickPress, Wed Jan 28 2015] The robust rate of growth recorded for Q314 reinforces our longstanding view that the US will continue to regain its economic footing in the coming years. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its second estimate of Q314, and reported that real GDP expanded by 3.9% on an annualised, seasonally adjusted basis, up from a preliminary estimate of 3.5%. Our overall view that the US economy will continue to accelerate remains firmly in place. We are forecasting growth of 2.7% in 2015.
A steady improvement in consumer confidence reinforces our view that private consumption will accelerate in 2015, boosting freight transport volumes. The most recent high-frequency data for the US labour market support our view that the sector will continue to make positive strides. The unemployment rate, which came in at 5.9% in September, beating consensus expectations, has fallen below the 6.0% threshold for the first time since 2011. Similarly, the change in nonfarm payrolls came in at 248,000 for the month, up from just 142,000 in August, significantly beating consensus expectations of 215,000. Consumer purchases of durable goods, particularly automobiles, also picked up sharply in Q214, a signal that consumers are confident enough about their financial security that they are increasingly willing to buy big-ticket items.
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We believe currency strength will discourage foreign customers from purchasing US-produced goods and services over the near term, while promoting an increase in imports. As a result, we expect that any improvement in net exports will be subdued in real terms over the coming months. Over a longer time horizon, our Oil & Gas team is optimistic about a range of new fields coming online, which will reduce US demand for foreign energy, and eventually provide an important source of export revenues in the form of liquefied natural gas.
Key Industry Data
* At the Port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast growth of 3.5% in total tonnage in 2015, to reach 66.6mn tonnes.
The United States Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United States Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American freight transport and logistics industry.
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