South Africa Country Risk Report Q2 2015 - New Market Study Published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Feb 09 2015

Core Views:

* ANC policy is likely to shift left over the course of the next 18 months as the party attempts to fend off a challenge from populist opponents, and to stem the loss of support owing the electorate's frustrations with public service delivery.
* The South African economy will benefit from lower oil prices, and we have upgraded our 2015 real GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.1% due to oil price declines. Private consumption and, to a lesser extent, investment will be the main beneficiaries of lower oil prices.
* The South African Reserve Bank will keep the repo rate on hold at 5.75% through 2015, even while the US Federal Reserve hikes rates by 50 basis points. Benign inflationary trends and weak economic growth will prompt the Monetary Policy Committee to become dovish.
* The rand will continue to depreciate against a strong US dollar over the course of 2015. With much of the bad news about the economy priced in, and with oil prices heading lower, the pace of the declines will be less than that seen in 2013 and 2014.

Full Report Details at

Major Forecast Changes:

* We have upgraded our 2015 real GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.1% previously.
* We have changed our forecast for the 2015 current account deficit to 3.6% of GDP from 4.7% previously.
* We have revised down our 2015 average inflation forecast to 4.7% from 6.0% previously.

Key Risks To Outlook:

* A sustained bout of global risk aversion with an attendant sharp outflow of portfolio funds. This would threaten South Africa's balance of payments.
* A sudden uptick in domestic political risk, such as an escalation of the industrial unrest that blighted various sectors in 2013.

Forecast Table:

The South Africa Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in South Africa. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of South Africa's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of South Africa's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise South Africa's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in South Africa, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001

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