Now Available: Poland Shipping Report Q2 2015

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Feb 17 2015

Ports Of Gdansk And Gdynia To See 6-8% Growth

We continue to expect a strong performance from Polish ports in 2015. GDP expansion, a continuing trade recovery (despite some worries over export demand), the beneficial effects of capacity expansion, and Poland's important gateway role will support growth. Both key ports - Gdansk and Gdynia - will see tonnage and box traffic rising in the 6-8% range.

We have edged up our outlook for the Polish economy relative to our last quarterly report, although we remain below consensus. We believe GDP will expand 3.2% in 2015 (3.1% previously) after estimated growth of 3.1% in 2014 (2.8% previously). One of the biggest drivers of growth is government spending ahead of parliamentary elections, expected in October. Before resigning to take a new post in the European Council, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a public spending package and we expect his successor Ewa Kopacz to honour this pledge. Household consumption is also positive although it has struggled to gain momentum. Exports are somewhat more under pressure, particularly as we have reined in our forecasts for Germany, a key Polish export market.

Full Report Details at

Headline Industry Data

* 2015 port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast to grow 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 34.03mn tonnes. Over the medium-term to 2019, we project a 6.5% average annual increase.
* 2015 port of Gdansk container throughput forecast to grow 8.0% to 1.36mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium-term, we project an 8.9% average annual increase.
* Port of Gdynia tonnage to increase 8.8% to 21.06mn tonnes in 2015, with five-year average annual growth at 7.0%.
* Port of Gdynia container handling growth predicted to be 6.7% in 2015 to 830,805 TEUs, with growth set to average 6.4% in the medium-term to 2019
* 2015 total trade growth forecast at 11.9%, up significantly from an estimated 3.3% in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

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The Poland Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Poland.

BMI's Poland Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Poland.

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