Romania continues to be one of the most promising markets in Central and Eastern Europe. The competition in the retail market is set to intensify as multiple chains are expanding their networks and household income is approaching the average income found in the EU . The country boasts one of the largest populations in the region and proactive market supervision institutions. However, the country's economic growth will slow down as the whole EU faces deflationary threats. We anticipate both the country's GDP and total household spending in US dollar terms to decline in 2015 and recover later into our forecast period.
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Even though it remains one of the poorest countries in the EU, Romania has managed to benefit from the membership in the continent's prestigious economic bloc. It has been outperforming the union as its per capita GDP at market prices in euro terms grew from 23.3% of the bloc's average in 2007 when Romania joined the EU to 27.1% in 2013. We predict that the country will make significant advances in the next five years posting one of the highest GDP growth rates in the EU. However, the integration in the stalling economic bloc comes with risks - in order to avoid falling into a recession together with Western European countries, the Romanian government will have to diversify the country's exports with the overall economy while the retailers will have to find ways to rely less on imports as the Romanian leu continues to depreciate. Romania is also planning to join the eurozone in 2019. Obligation to meet the Maastricht Criteria would benefit the country's public finances and investment environment and the upcoming developments in the EU will show whether joining the euro zone would be beneficial as well.
The Romanian retail sector is undergoing a process of structural change. Traditional retail in the country is still widespread, even by Eastern European standards as only roughly 1.1% of more than 120,000 shops in the country are...
The Romania Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Romania Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
* Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian retail market.
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