New Market Report: Venezuela Autos Report Q2 2015

Vehicle sales in Venezuela declined 76%, to 23,707 units, in 2014 as the increasingly poor economic outlook impacts the sector. Inflation is running very high, eroding consumers' purchasing power and appetite for big ticket purchases, such as new cars. High interest rates curtail demand for vehicle loans, and the ongoing weakness in the Venezuelan bolivar (and further weakness in the unofficial exchange rate) increasingly makes vehicle imports more expensive in local currency terms.

Vehicle production in Argentina declined 72.5% in 2014, to 19,759 units, as the domestic market contracted and the country's business environment deteriorated. This is broadly in line with our full year forecast, as we expected these dynamics to hamper the sector.

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As downside risks to global oil prices mounted at the end of 2014, we highlighted how sustained low oil prices would have far reaching negative impacts on the Venezuelan automotive industry. In January 2015, BMI significantly revised down its 10-year price forecast for Brent crude oil - the global oil price benchmark - in response to long-term structural shifts in the global market and OPEC's decision to maintain oil production at 30mn barrels a day. Accordingly, we revised down our core view to our worst case scenario view, reducing our forecasts for Venezuelan vehicle production and sales over 2015.

Moreover, BMI has long maintained a bearish outlook on vehicle production in Venezuela, as the government continues to intervene in the economy, further restricting access to foreign currency and implementing import restrictions on auto components. The ongoing weakness in the local currency will also serve to make supplier imports more expensive, further exacerbating the shortage of components. Furthermore, the worsening business environment makes profitable operations in the country increasingly difficult as the government seeks to limit profit margins for companies.

BMI has long maintained that in order to see sustained...

The Venezuela Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Venezuela Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Venezuela.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Venezuelan automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.

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