Recent Study: China Freight Transport Report Q2 2015

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Mar 02 2015

We maintain our cautious view on China's shipping sector. China's economic growth in the coming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economic liberalisation process slows, and population growth falls. These dynamics will result in real GDP growth averaging 6.0% over the next decade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. Private consumption will be a major outperformer, averaging growth of 8.1% and rising in importance as a share of GDP. This is good n ews for the country's freight transport sector, which should see a boost in volumes as a result.

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China will see the fastest growth rates in the region for private consumption. We forecast average annual real private consumption growth of 8.0%, over the next five years. These high growth rates chime with the rebalancing of the economy towards greater private consumption, and as such, will see private consumption growth remain strong, despite our forecasts for a slowdown in the overall economy's real growth rate to below 7.0% over the coming years.

After a decade-long cycle of high commodity prices, partly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, the ongoing slowdown of the country's economy and rebalancing away from the metal-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors raises questions over the future of China's commodities demand and import needs, with a possible negative knock-on effect on dry bulk imports in particular. We also caution that the inevitable bursting of the ongoing credit bubble could serve to undermine the profitability of the consumer-focused industries.

Headline Industry Data

* 2015 air freight tonnes/km is expected to grow by 3.6%.
* 2015 rail freight tonnes/km is forecast to grow by 1.8%.
* 2015 port of Shanghai throughput is forecast to grow by 2.6%.
* 2015 road freight tonnes/km is forecast to grow by 9.9%.

Key Industry Trends

PACTL Registers 16.3% Increase In Cargo Tonnage During January-November :...

The China Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s China Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.

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