Just Published: "Mozambique Country Risk Report Q2 2015"

Core Views:

* Opposition concerns about the Mozambican election's credibility are shared by many observers but the result - a victory of ruling party Frelimo - will not be overturned. A negotiated settlement, which gives Renamo leaders more status, will nonetheless be necessary. The chances of a successful agreement are bolstered by the consensus-based approach President-elect Felipe Nyussi.
* Mozambique's growth forecasts are unchanged following the ruling party's widely-expected victory at October 2014 elections. However, the strong performance of the opposition increases security and policy risks, and these could result in lower growth than we are currently forecasting.
* Mozambique's monetary policy committee will hold its key interest rate at 7.5% in 2015 as it balances low inflation and growth concerns against a slower year on year growth outlook for the economy. A pronounced slowdown for economic growth would lead to more aggressive cuts, however.
* The outlook for Mozambique's external accounts has been clouded by falling prices for coking coal, an increasingly important export. However, the impact of this will be offset by lower oil prices which will constrain the growth of the import bill and the net effect will therefore be marginal.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/960637_mozambique_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes:

* No forecast changes.

Key Risks To Outlook:

* Mozambique is vulnerable to adverse weather specifically too much or too little rain and this will continue to pose a risk to the agriculturally-based economy.
* The security situation poses a major threat to economic growth, the external accounts and government revenue as a significant deterioration would likely lead to reduced foreign investment inflows.
* A failure to address deficient infrastructure is the most pressing risk to our upbeat view on the Mozambican economy. Transport infrastructure in particular is currently inadequate to get Mozambique's natural riches to international markets. Failure to address this would negatively impact our...

The Mozambique Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Mozambique. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Mozambique's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Mozambique's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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