Bulgaria Autos Report Q2 2015 - New Market Study Published

We forecast for the slowdown in vehicle sales growth seen in 2014 to intensify in 2015 and have revised down our passenger car sales forecast for the year to growth of just 1.1% to 20,583 units, down from 3.8% previously. This weak performance will come as shrinking access to credit, a worsening of consumer confidence, and a poor macroeconomic backdrop all drag on consumer spending on cars over 2015.

Part of the longer term problem for the new vehicle market in Bulgaria is the practice of hanging on to older vehicles, a practice which we believe will intensify due to lower oil prices. According to a report published in June 2014, data from the Bulgarian traffic police show that 39% of all registered vehicles are more than 20 years old. We believe this trend will continue as fuel costs fall alongside falling oil prices. Falling fuel prices will make replacing older, less fuel efficient vehicles with more fuel efficient new vehicles a much less attractive option than simply keeping older vehicles. Owing to our Country Risk team's worsening macroeconomic outlook for Bulgaria, we are revising down our LCV forecast for 2015. We now forecast sales to drop 0.5% over 2015, down from a forecasted 5% gain, previously. As tightening credit conditions and weak consumer confidence weigh on spending, our country risk forecast real GDP growth to grow by a disappointing 0.8%. All this considered, we highlight that the heavy truck segment looks set to perform marginally better than LCVs. Owing to the strong correlation between heavy truck demand and construction activity, we believe heavy truck sales will expand 3.0% in 2015 alongside 1.7% real growth in the construction sector.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/960650_bulgaria_autos_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=301

There is positive news in the production segment, however. In August 2014, Litex Motors, the local partner of China's Great Wall Motors, announced an added EUR70mn investment in its Lovech factory; the only vehicle assembly plant in Bulgaria. The move will allow Litex to incorporate welding, metal...

The Bulgaria Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Bulgaria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bulgarian automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.



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