Tanzania Agribusiness Report Q2 2015 - New Market Report

We continue to favour the Tanzanian sugar and coffee industries over the medium term owing to the potential for growth on the back of strong investment in capacity. The grain industry in Tanzania will remain less competitive than in other countries in the region, particularly South Africa and Zambia, and we see little potential for the country to become a major grain exporter.

Key Forecasts

* Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 10.0 % to 341 ,000 tonnes. Increased investment in the sector as well as booming consumption on the back of growing confectionery and soft drinks demand will support growth.
* Corn consumption growth to 2018: 7.3 % to 5. 4 mn tonnes. A combination of lower average prices and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.
* Coffee production growth from 2013/14 to 2017/18: 31.3 % to 1.1 mn 60kg bags. The sector is benefiting from investment in disease-resistant trees, and from incentives for small producers.
* 201 5 real GDP growth: 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), stable compared with the 2014 level; forecast to average 6.7% over 2013-2018.
* 2015 c onsumer price inflation: 6.0% average (down from 6.5% average in 2014).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.5 % y-o-y increase to USD3.2 bn in 2014/15, forecast to average growth of 3.2% per year between 2014/15 and 2017/18.

Full Report Details at
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Industry Developments

We forecast corn production in Tanzania to come in at 5.0mn tonnes in 2014/15, a decline of 6.6% y-o-y. Lower yields owing to unfavourable weather and lower input use has damaged the country's grain crop over the last couple of years.

Similar to many other Sub-Saharan African nations, we do not expect Tanzania to significantly improve its grains output via improved yield growth. Furthermore, lower average corn prices relative to the last few years will discourage significant plantings growth.

In contrast to the general optimism...

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Tanzania Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.



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