Report Published: "United States Autos Report Q2 2015"

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Apr 17 2015

While our view that the light vehicle market would return to 16mn units in 2014 and that the light truck market would outperform still very much hold true, the strength of demand has surpassed initial expectations. With December sales expected to have continued the period of strong sales growth with more holiday discounts on offer and fuel prices trending lower, we have revised our full-year estimate slightly, with the total volume being largely unchanged but the growth projection reflecting the truck outperformance even more markedly. The passenger car element has been lowered slightly, to growth of 1.0% from 2.0% previously. We have revised up the light truck forecast from 8.0% to 9.0%.

The launch of several new models, including the new Ford F-150, the country's best-selling model, combined with sustained strength in the housing market as homebuilder confidence and permits continue to trend higher, will mean another strong year for light trucks in 2015. We forecast truck sales growth of 6.0%, with passenger car sales to grow at a slightly slower rate of 0.6%.

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This is also a slight revision from our previous forecast (again, higher for truck sales and lower for car sales), as we expect lower oil prices to continue supporting a preference for the light truck market. Looking beyond this point, however, we expect growth to be much lower. The growth of recent years is becoming increasingly harder to replicate in a mature market as the 'recovery' phase should technically be closed with a return to 16mn units. At the same time, the average length of auto loans being taken out is increasing, which will keep consumers locked into their existing vehicle for longer. With this in mind, we expect sales growth for 2016 and 2017 to average 2.0%.

We maintain our forecast for total medium and heavy truck sales to grow 10.0% to 386,910 units in 2014, pushing the market closer to the 400,000 unit mark last seen in 2005. This will be achieved in 2015, when we expect sales to grow a...

The United States Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's United States Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United States.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the American automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.

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