Market Report, "Canada Power Report Q2 2015", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Apr 17 2015

We maintain our moderately positive outlook for Canada's power sector, which we expect to remain more attractive relative to other mature markets in North America and Western Europe (NAWE) over the coming decade. Our view is premised on Canada's stable electricity consumption figures and robust hydro power project pipeline, coupled with strong growth in natural gas-fired generation . Consequently , the main risk to our power generatio n forecasts is represented by lower gas production expectations due to falling oil prices, which could create feedstock supply bottlenecks for Canada's growing gas-fired power fleet. While the renewables sector will continue growing in provinces which offer incentives to developers, we forecast nuclear generation to decrease over the coming decade as existing reactors are retired or refurbished.

Our Country Risk team expects Canada's real GDP to grow at an annual average of over 2.0% through to 2023, with strengthening private consumption and fixed investment supporting domestic power demand. This relatively strong economic growth, in addition to continued demographic expansion, supports our forecast for power consumption to grow by an annual average rate of 0.97% between 2014 and 2023 - well above the average within NAWE power sector.

Full Report Details at

We expect total generation in the country to expand by an annual average rate of 0.80% during our 10-year forecast period. This slow growth reflects a reduction in coal-fired generation for environmental reasons and the retirement or refurbishment of Canada's aging nuclear reactors. However, those reductions will be more than offset by growth in the hydropower, natural gas-fired and renewable generation. As a result, we forecast shifts in the country's power generation mix, with the share of coal to decrease in favour of a larger share of renewables and natural gas.

Key Trends and Developments

* While we expect coal-fired generation to shrink by an average annual rate of...

The Canada Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Canada Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.

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