Just Published: "Iran Autos Report Q2 2015"

Iranian vehicle production rose by 46.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) during 2014, to 1,090,846 units, according to statistics from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA). Given this strong performance, BMI believes there may be some upside risk to its own forecast of 1,078,492 units produced over the Iranian calendar year period (March 2014 -March 2015). Breaking down the headline figure, Iran produced 925,975 passenger cars and 164,871 commercial vehicles. This makes Iran the 18th largest auto producer in the world.

At the present time, sentiment towards the Iranian auto industry remains dominated by the progress of ongoing negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 countries (the US, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany) over Iran's nuclear programme. The two sides have until June 30 2015 to reach a permanent agreement. During this time, Iran will continue to receive around USD700mn a month from its frozen accounts, although key international sanctions on its energy and banking sector will remain in place.

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In January 2015, BMI's Country Risk team reaffirmed its belief that the talks will be protracted, with risks tilted slightly to the downside. Overall, we believe that a solution to the nuclear issue will not be found by June 30, as political constraints will prevent both Iranian and US negotiators from making the significant concessions necessary to bridge existing technical obstacles to a deal. That said, a complete breakdown in talks is also unlikely in June, as the costs would be immense. Our core view therefore remains that talks will continue over the next two years through a series of partial deals and extensions. Following June 2015, we believe that a form of face-saving, partial agreement will be reached, which will allow for further talks.

It is clear that there remains strong demand for new vehicles from the Iranian population at present. As such, the potential for improved foreign relations between Iran and the West over...

The Iran Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Iran Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Iran.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iranian automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.



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