Market Report, "Venezuela Retail Report Q2 2015", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Sat Apr 25 2015

As a result of high inflation and a chronic shortage of basic goods in Venezuela the economic outlook remains unstable at the beginning of our period which has seen us forecast negative year-on-year growth rates of total household spending in 2015 and 2016. Moreover, the tough regulatory environment looks set to remain a barrier to entry for international investors within the retail sector until 2019. However, the burgeoning middle-class will stimulate growth in the sector which will see a more positive outlook for retailers by the end of our period.

Our projections have been downgraded for growth rates across all sub-sectors of the retail sector and we expect all sub-sectors of the retail sector to experience negative growth, in USD terms, until 2017. High inflation is a key driver behind this trend, with inflation hitting 64% in Q3 2014, and remaining high since. The government have implemented price controls on certain goods, subsidising basics such as milk and soap however it is such products which are now in severe shortage in Venezuela and have led to many retailers limiting the number of purchases consumers are able to make as well as high queues. The issue of chronic shortages has been compounded by currency controls which have restricted the number of dollars needed for imports. Moreover, price controls and nationalisations have hurt local production which looks likely to lead to a dampening of purchasing power as net income is expected to fall in both 2015 and 2016. We expect this trend to contribute towards the forecasted decline in growth across the retail sector over the next two years as many households will be unable to afford products, particularly imported ones.

Full Report Details at

A further deterrent for foreign investors is the adverse business environment which has largely been created as a result of the restrictive import policy that has made it harder for businesses to import foreign items. The high level of government intervention has added to...

The Venezuela Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Venezuela Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan retail market.

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