New market study, "Philippines Country Risk Report Q3 2015", has been published

Core Views

* We forecast real GDP growth of 6.0% for the Philippines in 2015, as we expect sustained solid growth in domestic demand. Positive growth momentum will in turn keep the Philippine peso resilient. That said, the ongoing economic slowdown in China and weakness in the Japanese economy could act as a drag on Philippine exports.

*We have pared back our expectations for a rate hike in the Philippines, and are now forecasting the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.00% in 2015. This is due to our expectations for the Philippine economy to continue along a growth-inflation sweet spot and for the central bank to not go against the wave of monetary easing seen across central banks in the region.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/987535_philippines_country_risk.aspx?afid=301

*Fiscal reform efforts by the Philippine government have continued to bear fruit. We expect continued fiscal prudence, and are forecasting the country's budget deficit as a share of GDP to narrow further, from 0.6% in 2014 to 0.4% in 2015.

*Weak oil prices, sustained growth in the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector and continued strong remittance inflows will allow the Philippines to generate a robust current account surplus, which we are forecasting will come in at 4.4% of GDP in 2015. A strong current account position will in turn lend support to the Philippine peso despite an environment of broad US dollar strength.

Major Forecast Changes

*We have revised our 2015 benchmark interest rate forecast to 4.00%, from our previous estimate of 4.25%.

Key Risks To Outlook

*The Philippines remains at risk of substantial hot money outflows in the event of acute global credit or financial market stresses.

*Growth slowdowns in both China and Japan, to which the Philippines is heavily exposed in both investment and trade terms, could undermine the country's strong domestic growth story should they be more severe than expected.

*The largest risk to our medium-term peso view comes from the potential for a devaluation of the...

The Philippines Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Philippines and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Philippines' economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Philippines' economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

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