Market Report, "Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q3 2015", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed May 27 2015

One of the last acts of the outgoing administration has been to revise the target for a ban on rice imports from 2015 to 2017. While not a hugely surprising or significant move in itself, it is emblematic of the gap between the government's ambition and its delivery on agricultural policy. Nigeria continues to import as much as two - thirds of the rice it consumes and is even more reliant on wheat and sugar imports to meet burgeoning domestic demand. However, it would be churlish to deny the genuine progress that has been made under the Minister of Agriculture, Akinwumi Adesina : the cocoa sector has received much needed attention in the form of improved seedlings and distribution of key inputs, while we see sturdy foundations for growth in livestock, sugar and rice production, even if the results will be reaped by the new administration.

Full Report Details at

Key Forecasts

* Cocoa production growth to 2018/19: 53.9% to 381,600 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficiently elevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.
* Corn consumption growth to 2019: 1.5% to 7.9mn tonnes. Weaker demand from the livestock industry will hold down consumption growth.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: increase of less than 0.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to USD5.97bn in 2015; forecast to grow by 35.6% from 2014-2019.
* Real GDP growth 2015: 3.9% y-o-y (down from 6.3% in 2014).
* Consumer price index (% y-o-y ave) 2015: 10.0% (up from 8.1% in 2014).

Industry Developments

The latest reports from Bloomberg suggest that farmers in the south west of Nigeria are seeing yields dropping by as much as 40% in the early stages of the mid-crop harvest. However, the outlook in the south-eastern cocoa-growing regions is reported to be much more positive due to plentiful rainfall. We have revised down our forecast for 2014/15 cocoa output to 225,000 tonnes, below the International...

The Nigeria Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Nigeria Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.


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- France Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
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Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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