Now Available: Ecuador Infrastructure Report Q3 2015

We currently forecast 6 % real growth for Ecuador's construction industry in 2015. This is considerably lower than the 10% average of the last five years as we expect falling oil prices to considerably weaken infrastructure growth.

Key Trends And Developments

* While a number of factors have boosted prospects for Ecuador's construction industry over the medium term, weaknesses in the country's business environment will continue to present risks and cap growth. Chief among these will be financing.
* We believe Ecuador's infrastructure industry growth is highly unsustainable as it relies heavily on revenues from oil exports.
* As such, falling oil prices will have a detrimental impact on the government's capacity to spend in infrastructure development, particularly for projects in the planning stage. Our Oil & Gas team forecasts Brent to average USD75.0/bbl in 2015.
* Political risk will continue to provide cause for concern for investors in the country, with anti-democratic nuances and populist policies at odds with attracting international investment in infrastructure.
* Despite significant improvements, Ecuador's competitiveness is still weakened by its transport infrastructure. The roads, railways and ports, which are crucial to supporting the country's oil industry, need vast amounts of investment.
* In the oil and gas sector, Ecuador has taken initial steps to develop the controversial Ishpingo-Tambococha-Tiputini block by approving drilling on the 850mn barrel area, which is a considerable upside to our forecast. Production estimates for the field range up to 200,000b/d, which if achieved, will boost production in the country by almost 40%. It is estimated USD3bn will be needed in the initial phases to bring the field into production.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1003980_ecuador_infrastructure_report.aspx?afid=301

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