Hong Kong Shipping Report Q3 2015 - New Market Report

According to BMI 's forecasts, the port of Hong Kong will resume growth in box volumes in 2015 after three years of decline . Recent throughput volumes have been affected by a number of factors, including recession in the eurozone, sluggish US growth, the slowing Chinese economy, a move by Chinese factories further inland and competition from the port of Shenzhen . However, some of these factors are now expected to ease.

Over the medium term to 2019 we forecast further growth at the port, although it will not overtake Shenzhen in terms of box throughput. However, the port of Hong Kong has long-term expansion plans in place to ensure it remains among the world's top ports.

Headline Industry Data

* 2015 port of Hong Kong tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 4.5%. Over the medium term we project a 22% increase.
* 2015 container throughput is forecast to grow 2.0%. Over the medium term we project a 9% increase.
* 2015 total trade growth forecast at 3.85%.

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Key Industry Trends - Hong Kong's Shipping Companies Concentrate O n Core Busine sses

Hong Kong-based shipping companies are concentrating on their core areas of expertise, with Pacific Basin Shipping disposing of harbour towage assets and activities following discontinuation of ro-ro business, and Sinotrans Shipping selling its only oil tanker to concentrate on dry bulk, having chartered out all its container vessels earlier.

Risks T o Outlook

The major short-term risk to our outlook for Hong Kong is a potential weakening in the demand outlook for Europe, the US and China. If China experiences a sharper-than-expected slowdown, or the sovereign crisis in Europe takes a turn for the worse, there could be a fall in throughput at Hong Kong.

The movement of industries away from the Pearl River Delta region inland, on the back of rising production costs and labour shortages in the area, is likely to affect Hong Kong. However, BMI forecasts that Hong Kong will remain in fourth position...

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