Malaysia Power Report Q4 2015 - New Market Research Report

The Malaysian power sector is set to grow 4.8% in 2015, following a disappointing expansion of 3.7% in 2014. Growth should accelerate further after 2015 as most of the major thermal projects being developed in Malaysia for completion after 2015 are on schedule.

We forecast electricity generation in Malaysia to grow by 4.8% in 2015, versus an underwhelming expansion of 3.7% in 2014. We also expect growth to pick up further from 2016 onwards, on the back of strong thermal and non-hydropower renewable. We have maintained our long-term forecasts for electricity generation in Malaysia as the major projects we have incorporated into our forecasts after 2015 remain on track. We forecast electricity generation in Malaysia to average 5.2% growth per annum between between 2017-2019, before levelling off at a longer-term growth rate of approximately 4.6% through to 2024.

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Key Trends And Developments

We believe Malaysia's nuclear agenda is overly ambitious given the high development costs, widespread public opposition and the regional geopolitical implications of developing nuclear capacity. Nevertheless, Malaysia will continue to push for domestic nuclear power, based on the country's desire to diversify the power mix away from hydrocarbons and boost long-term energy security.

Following the collapse of global oil prices in Q414, Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) lowered its electricity tariff to reflect lower input prices. The fall in oil prices has likely shelved the expected hikes in electricity tariffs in Malaysia for the time being, although this could change in the event oil prices rebound over the medium term.

The country's energy sector is set to become more competitive, following the Electricity Commission's decision to hold a new power generation tender exercise to replace Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), with first generation Independent Power Producers expiring in 2016/17.

The Malaysia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Malaysia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
* Target business opportunities and risks Malaysia's power sector

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