Newly released market study: France Agribusiness Report Q4 2015

We forecast a decline in grains growth in 2015/16 in France, as yields will return to trend after extremely favourable weather in the 2014/15 season . We forecast wheat production to grow over our forecast period and expect production to reach 40.0mn tonnes by 2018/19. Milk production in the short term will not be fundamentally affected by the removal of the EU's production quota in April 2015 owing to low farmgate prices, but production will expand strongly out to the end of our forecast period in 2019. Cheese production will grow strongly as international exports will be in high demand. Poultry output growth will outperform that of the broader livestock sector as soft economic growth will encourage consumption.

Key Forecasts

Wheat production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 2.7% to 40.0mn tonnes. We expect wheat to remain one of the most profitable crops in the country and the most in demand crop for domestic use and exports.

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- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1032890_france_agribusiness_report_q4.aspx?afid=301

Poultry consumption growth to 2018/19: 4.9% to 1.7mn tonnes. We see stronger long-term demand growth for poultry than for pork or beef owing to poultry's general affordability and reputation for better health benefits than red meat.

Cheese production growth to 2018/19: 12.0% to 2.2mn tonnes. Over the longer term, we expect consolidation in the dairy industry to allow producers to take advantage of export demand. We also expect lower milk prices in Europe due to the end of production quotas from April 2015. The European Commission's decision to adopt new legislation allowing producers to collectively negotiate contracts with processors will improve the profitability of milk production, in turn supporting output.

2015 real GDP growth: 1.3% (upgraded from 0.9% in our last quarterly update and up from 0.4% in 2014).

The France Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's France Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

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