New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Philippines Freight Transport Report Q4 2015"
[ClickPress, Wed Sep 02 2015] Overall, 2015 will be a year of average growth for the Philippine freight industry. We expect the road, rail and air freight sector to grow by 2.6%, 6.5 % and 6.1 % respectively . Strong consumer demand and the boom in the construction sector mitigate weak export performance. Looking ahead, we expect the rail sector to grow in importance.
While the Philippines' real GDP growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q115 from 6.6% in Q414, owing largely to weaknesses in exports, we nevertheless expect strong domestic demand to provide a measure of support for the economy. As such, we maintain our forecast for the country's real GDP growth to come in at a strong 6.0% in 2015.
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The trade deficit is forecasted to increase to USD17.4bn in 2015 reflecting persistent weaknesses in key trading partners. Philippine exports to Japan and China fell by a substantial 19.4% and 12.0% y-o-y in Q1 2015. Weak export demand from these economies will weigh on growth of the freight sector over the medium term.
In 2015, we expect to see low tonnage growth in road freight as weak exports and ongoing congestion problems weigh on growth rates and will continue to do. Thus we forecast low average growth of 2.2% between 2015 and 2019.
We anticipate the rail freight sector to see tonnage growth of 6.5% in 2015, a minor slip from its 2014 estimated figure. Growth is expected to pick up over the forecast period reflecting significant improvements in the rail network and an anticipated boom in the construction sector. Rail freight is expected to increase to 7.842 mn tonnes by 2019.
After an erratic history, we anticipate air freight to embark on a more stable growth path with growth rates remaining between 6% and 7% over the period 2016 to 2019.
In terms of market share, the road freight sector will continue to dominate the freight mix over 2015, with over 98.6% of the total market. Rail retains its distant second place with 1.15% of the country's freight market.
The Philippines Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine freight transport and logistics industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
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