Now Available: Vietnam Country Risk Report Q4 2015

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Sep 04 2015

Vietnam's next leaders, to be selected in early 2016, will maintain the country's ongoing reforms, thus sustaining robust economic growth. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung appears to be front-runner for the coveted post of Communist Party General Secretary, given his respected economic track record and his tough stance towards China, whose increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea is worrying Vietnam.

The Vietnamese economy will remain on a strong growth trajectory over the coming years on the back of continued export resilience and ongoing reform measures by the government to shore up the country's business environment. As such, we maintain our forecast for real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.4% in 2015 from 6.0% in 2014, and for the economy to grow in excess of 6.0% in real terms over the coming years.

Full Report Details at

We expect the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to keep its dong reference rate unchanged at VND21,673/USD for the rest of 2015, and are forecasting the currency to remain stable at around VND21,800/USD over the coming months. Moving ahead, we expect the dong to remain largely stable on the back of a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, benign inflation and an ongoing improvement in the country's external health. Accordingly, we forecast the Vietnamese dong to average VND21,845/USD (from VND21,450/USD previously) in 2016.

While the Vietnamese economy remains strong, and therefore is not badly in need of monetary easing, we nevertheless expect the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to cut its key policy rates further. Current monetary policy is not particularly loose, while the room for easing has been increasing amid a benign inflationary environment. We therefore maintain our forecast for the SBV to cut its refinancing rate by 50 basis points (bps), taking it to 6.00% by end-2015.

The Vietnam Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Vietnam. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Vietnam's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Vietnam's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Vietnam's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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